“…9 foundations have chosen to go through 21 securities firms concentrated in Hong Kong, Lijiapo, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Tokyo and Seoul, including the United States.
In the next month, we will purchase three to six-month call options on Chinese stocks such as Qiandu with a face value of more than US$15 billion, and have set reasonable take-profit and stop-loss lines as well as reserve margin.
According to your request, we have formulated the most conservative investment portfolio plan. Taking USDxxx per thousand as the base point, when the price rises to USD650 per share, the minimum book profit will be USD300.
相较于20-60美元的杠杆持仓成本,理论最低盈利规模为5-8倍,如千度可承担的风险上限在现价20%至25%下跌左右。
A total of approximately US$1 million was invested in call options on Chinese stocks listed in the US.
The yield rates of other Chinese stocks listed in the US are based on this standard, and the positions are closed and cashed out when the yields reach as low as 5 times.
If there are uncontrollable risks such as the 08 financial crisis, the investment will be withdrawn at a loss of up to two-thirds of the principal...
In the most ideal situation, all the arrangements are implemented in place. However, in reality, in the actual process, book profits may be lost due to the counterparty not participating in the actual stock transaction or terminating the agreement early.
We estimate that if things go smoothly as expected, excluding human interference factors, and if the transaction is completed smoothly in 6 months, and if decisive positive factors such as Google's withdrawal occur, the revenue will stabilize at more than US$ billion.
However, if human factors are added, such as early termination of performance, or inability to find sufficient counterparties, the expected profit may be halved to around US$5 million to US$10 billion.
The team does not have a good response strategy for over-the-counter options. After all, Chinese stocks led by Baidu have been highly sought after in the U.S. capital market recently.
Data shows that many well-known large funds are collectively long on Chinese stocks listed in the United States, and the pace of purchasing call options has slowed significantly.
Even some American securities firms have explicitly stated that they will no longer accept new call option positions.
They even warned us that Qiandu's stock price was rising too fast, citing its price-to-earnings ratio, net profit, earnings per share, etc. compared with Google's stock price, trying to persuade us to join the short side.
Therefore, the bulk of purchases are relatively concentrated in the Southeast Asian financial market. Several financial securities firms in Lijiaopo have launched specially customized combination bonds for sale in response to the company's large investments.
But you know, even if there are new short contracts entering the market, brokerage firms will give priority to matching their own proprietary departments, so theoretically the sales volume will not be too high.
This requires additional marketing costs..."
Hearing this, Li Zehua could not help but interrupt Lin Wenhui's speech, "Since there are not enough short orders to match in the OTC market, then try to directly participate in the on-site options trading.
Don’t US stocks allow stocks to be delivered at any time before the deadline? "
He is not very clear about the specific transactions of stock options, but he is familiar with the exercise because the option rewards allocated by the company to management are essentially no different from option transactions.
In simple terms, someone is optimistic about the future stock price of a certain stock, but does not have that much money on hand at the moment, or wants to earn more.
When there are too many optimistic people, we will encounter the current situation. Many people make bets off the market, with too many bullish and too few bearish ones, resulting in the off-market longs not being matched with enough short opponents.
Then there is only one move left, which is to directly enter the market and buy warrants, because Qiandu's current stock price is not low, especially since it has experienced a surge of more than 09% since the beginning of 120.
Many investors are naturally afraid of heights, but do not want to lose future profits.
Then they will also participate in stock options trading, and at this time they will have a large number of natural counterparties.
However, there is a major hidden danger in intervening in on-site transactions. That is, if there is a misjudgment, such as a sharp drop in Baidu's stock price, the investor will lose all the costs of purchasing the warrants.
Lin Wenhui was just about to talk about this issue, and he also wanted to persuade his boss to take it easy.
When large funds enter the market for portfolio investment, they often have to do sufficient risk hedging. Betting on one side is often the behavior of a madman, but Li Zehua just gave the order to go all in.
Lin Wenhui couldn't persuade him and could only temporarily delay the purchase of warrants, which was perfectly reflected in his subsequent report.
“…The purchase of warrants on the exchange is also in progress, and the stock operation team recruited from the mainland, Lijiapo and Hong Kong has also been in place.
According to your requirements, fourteen major stocks are marked for warrant buying operations.
Currently, more than 430 million US dollars of Qiandu warrants have been purchased, 60 US dollars of Sohu, 50 US dollars of NetEase, etc. After deducting the expenses and handling fees for purchasing warrants, the current book loss exceeds 9.3%...
After personal analysis and that of my investment team, I believe that the risk is too great and without sufficient hedging investment, once a reverse fluctuation occurs, it is likely that all the money will be lost.
In particular, you also requested that once the purchased warrants make a profit, you will seek cooperation from a securities firm for secondary mortgage, and the proceeds will continue to be used to purchase the stock warrants of the above-mentioned company..."
Lin Wenhui finished reading the part about buying stocks in one breath and added: "This is too risky. The price of a Qiandu warrant is as high as 25-30 US dollars.
Based on the current share price increase, the initial loss is more than 8%.”
This is the correct way to open a warrant. Regardless of whether the price goes up or down, a huge loss will occur at the beginning.
Taking Qiandu as an example, assuming that the stock price today is US$300 and its warrant is US$30 per piece, then the buyer theoretically must wait until the price reaches US$330 to exercise the warrant in order to avoid a loss.
But there is also a biggest advantage, that is, when you are certain that it will rise, no matter how it rises or falls before the exercise date, there will be no actual loss to investors.
Even if the judgment is wrong on the exercise day and the stock price plummets, the biggest loss is the cost of purchasing the warrant itself.
There is no need to pay extra money or add money for margin. Since the issuer is usually the securities firm itself and there are enough stocks, you can buy it as long as you have money.
In order to diversify its investments and avoid attracting the attention of interested parties, Qingyun Investment is looking for 21 securities firms in Asia and North America to trade simultaneously.
Each company has as much as 20 to 30 million US dollars, and as little as only one million US dollars. It is difficult to be noticed among so many brokerage firms that do not share data with each other.
Of course, it cannot escape the final statistics of New York stock settlement, but this is the general trend and cannot be easily changed by one or two financial institutions.
With Google's withdrawal, Qiandu will become the only dominant player. This level of positive news will lead to countless retail investors rushing into the market with their eyes closed and waving their money to take over.
Financial institutions are not doing charity. There is no benefit in using large amounts of money to suppress stock prices. They may even be trapped by competitors, and suffer losses.
This is the essence of the secondary investment market. Insider trading, advance layout, and early harvesting/stop loss are always inevitable.
Google's negotiations at the University of Tokyo have attracted the attention of countless financial institutions. In theory, whoever can get first-hand information can make enough profit in this financial feast.
Coincidentally, Li Zehua knew the final result six months in advance. Based on the bankruptcy of the tripartite agreement, this was a negotiation that Todai had to fight back against and Google would inevitably reject.
The result was doomed from the beginning.
He couldn't help but frown, "Too slow, we must speed up!
While Qiandu’s stock price is surging and retail investors and institutions are generally afraid of heights, seize the opportunity to complete your position!
I have said more than once the inevitable reason why the negotiations broke down and Google withdrew from the mainland. This was a collective decision made by a responsible major country.
It doesn't depend on someone's will, so feel free to do it! "
While speaking, I was still calculating in my mind that the warrant currently has a 30x leverage. If I buy it at $300 and the stock price rises by $270, I can earn $ by exercising the warrant (excluding handling fees).
The most crucial thing is that the agreement signed between Qingyun Investment and various securities companies is cash settlement, not stock settlement.
Once the option is exercised, there is no need to deliver the stocks. Instead, the money will be directly transferred based on the real-time stock price at the closing of the day.
With the success of this speculation, the Qingyun Group will have a secret fund overseas that can be used at any time, and many of the envisioned plans can finally be implemented.
The securities firms will not lose money either, because this is equivalent to locking in expected returns in advance. The more people buy warrants, the more shares of stocks that have been sold they will lock in in advance.
Through the brokerage firm's proprietary department or by reaching an agreement with the stock trading market, these stocks can be locked in with risk capital. Once the price rises too quickly, losses will occur.
Then they will continue to sell and close their positions in the process, rebuild positions at new points, and sell short warrants in reverse to ensure that the risk loss is minimized.
In the end, no matter whether the stock price soars or plummets, as long as it does not happen within one day, they will have enough time to adjust their positions through actual transactions and over-the-counter transactions.
The only way for a broker to make money is to earn commissions. As for the profit and loss of the proprietary department, that is another matter. Li Zehua, who has absolute inside information, has no reason to worry about losses. Instead, he is now worried that he will not be able to buy the last extra chips, which will affect his future income.
The warrant is worth ten times the value of the other, and the planned investment is US$15 million, with a minimum fixed income of seven times, plus a maximum of times the income from over-the-counter options betting. Adding the two together, three hundred million becomes three billion (theoretically).
Lin Wenhui was speechless after hearing what he said. He could only think that he had gotten to know enough powerful people through the development of Qingyun Group in recent days, and had repeatedly confirmed the authenticity of the inside information through their hints.
Then, it feels great.
With this level of insider trading, there is no need to worry about being investigated, and the returns are stable, but not many people can participate.
"Based on the agreement with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, the US$300 million is used to invest in the secondary market in mainland China, so the company is discussing cooperation on overseas guarantees and domestic loans with Bank of China Hong Kong.
The feedback from Bank of China is very good. All you need to do is provide the shares of Xiangjiang FaMa Group under your name as collateral. "
"Ok?"
Li Zehua was stunned for a moment. "Wasn't it just a formality of transferring accounts? How did it become a real loan?"
He has no shortage of funds from the mainland, and what he had previously discussed with the Bank of China were all formal loans. The review, signing, and loan disbursement were all real, but in reality they were just idle on the books, and he had to pay an extra handling fee.
This can be regarded as an explanation for the financing of Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.
Facing his boss's doubts, Lin Wenhui smiled bitterly and said, "The other party is pursuing us too closely because we didn't consider it carefully at first, but BOC also sincerely intends to facilitate this transaction.
To this end, they have provided a relatively favorable policy, which is much lower than the bank loan interest rate during the same period.”
The world economic environment has begun to improve significantly, and the assessment tasks of financial institutions have also begun to increase. Under performance pressure, Bank of China has had to find ways to generate revenue.
Since Qingyun Investment came to them and asked for cooperation, how could they let it go? They had to lend them the money.
Such a high-quality enterprise must be acquired even if we have to use special policy subsidies.
Don't ask, the answer is that they also have their eyes on the overseas earnings of the Fama Group. They can earn interest from this loan, and if they can't pay it back, they can earn shares. It's a sure win!
Li Zehua was forced to laugh and cry about the loan. "This is the first time I heard of someone being forced to take out a loan. Even if the interest is not much more than the handling fee, it is still money."
Lin Wenhui was helpless, but still explained to him patiently. After all, if the other party dared to raise the issue, there was no need to worry that the Qingyun Group would not agree, such as the invisible benefits and the friendship of Bank of China.
Some special relationships in the Mainland also implicitly stated that they could be appropriately taken care of in certain occasions, just as if they were helping Bank of China complete its annual tasks. You help me today, and I will help you tomorrow.
The essence is just the exchange of resources.
After thinking this through, Li Zehua did not refuse, but only raised one point, "The specific use of the loan cannot be based on the agreement. You need to make it clear to them. Do you want to enter the mainland stock market to take over at this point?"
The group must definitely establish private equity funds in the mainland, use additional stock market earnings to bind the future of the core elite team, reduce the turnover rate of key positions, and use the money from the stock market to win people's hearts.
why not?
But in this year's market, even a god can't save it. Except for some specific stocks, such as Moutai, I don't want to buy any others.
You can't just throw all the more than 20 billion yuan in foreign guarantees and domestic loans into buying Moutai shares, right?
That would be such a waste of money. This was Qingyun Investment's money, which was 100% controlled by him and could be used freely. It would be perfect to use it to support the development of new businesses.
Facing the boss's signal to continue, Lin Wenhui continued to open another document, took a look at it, and then frowned and asked:
“Chairman, with all due respect to Bitcoin, based on my personal and investment team’s overall assessment, it does not seem to have any investment value.
In theory, blockchain technology cannot provide any potential practical needs.
Although the purchase price itself is low enough, with a mere $0.01 being enough to buy a lot, it still takes five million dollars and a year to build a dedicated trading network.
Is this too radical?”
Buy the box and return the pearl. This phrase suddenly popped up in Lin Wenhui's mind.
Li Zehua's operation is really incomprehensible. Lin Wenhui and the investment team below have been thinking about it for half a month, but they still can't figure out what the use of this thing is.
Aren’t blockchain and cryptocurrency ubiquitous?
Is it worth spending five million dollars to set up a trading venue?
Not to mention five million, even spending hundreds of thousands of dollars would be enough to buy all of the more than 2000 million bitcoins mentioned by Satoshi Nakamoto, provided that they have all been mined.
"What specific effect it has, I can't say for now."
Li Zehua is also taking a gamble. He plans to go to America in a while, not for anything else, but mainly to meet with Musk and others to discuss technical cooperation and introduction of Tesla.
WeChat and TikTok, as well as advance communication on commercial real estate cooperation with Kaoputi, will of course also mention future expectations for cryptocurrencies in private.
One point that must be emphasized here is that cryptocurrency itself does not have any value, but because it has special application scenarios and a specific group of people need it, it is artificially given special value.
Its price increase is also influenced by many common factors. The funds that cannot be seen in the open need an unregulated channel to trade, that's all.
It is as if John Bull never asked about the source of the funds that were repeatedly laundered through the London financial market.
In this world where there are blue skies and white clouds, there are naturally dark clouds. A prosperous city also cannot do without dark and gloomy sewers to drain water and treat domestic sewage.
Existence is reasonable!
Li Zehua never intended to be a saint. He was just an ordinary man. If he wanted to eat and live happily, he had to exchange interests.
The development of the entire Qingyun system ultimately has a limit. A normal economic society will not accept a freak that goes beyond the rules.
He also couldn't accept watching Qingyun Group being torn apart one day in the future.
Therefore, it is necessary to plan ahead to increase the foundation for dealing with crises in the future.
Controlling an overseas underground network, monitoring certain transaction details, controlling and influencing some private forces, and sharing interests with certain major forces is also a disguised way of increasing one's own trump cards.
Lin Wenhui didn't understand these things, but he could see that his boss was making some advance arrangements that he couldn't understand. However, the information resources he had were seriously unequal.
He just couldn't figure out what value this thing had.
“The people sent to carry out the collection mission must be closely monitored. Although theoretically no one would care about the value of this thing, it is better to be safe than sorry.
If you find someone secretly intercepting the money during this process, don’t make it public, just record it first.”
Li Zehua does not have a complete plan for the time being, mainly because his power is too small.
In the past, the forces driving the development of cryptocurrency were far more than just one country or a few top consortiums.
If all goes well, he will have to hand over most of the chips he has collected now in the end, as a token of his allegiance, and win over powerful enough allies to endorse him, so that the benefits can be shared equally in the long run.
However, one thing is certain: cryptocurrency will definitely appear on the historical stage, and Bitcoin's limited supply and unregulated nature will surely help it develop with this favorable trend.
Even if it doesn't reach the historical high price of $60,000 per coin, by trading between the left and right hands and constantly promoting it for self-entertainment, it would still be a huge profit if it could reach a few hundred dollars per coin.
When Lin Wenhui left to execute the order with confusion, Li Zehua smiled and said, "This is the joy of foreknowledge. Insider trading may be the biggest difference between me and Buffett.
In addition to insider information, he also has enough allies to interfere, influence, and change the final outcome through shared and exchanged resources. "
(End of this chapter)